Flood & Severe Storm Threat

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx



The clouds are already beginning to stream back in this afternoon, but some light rain might begin to develop in far southern neighborhoods late tonight. The image here shows the rain forecast for the next few days. The estimates run anywhere from 4 to 7 inches across a large part of east and southeast Texas. This means we could see flash flooding Tuesday into Wednesday. A vigorous storm system which was in California a few days ago will strengthen as it pulls out from West Texas. Warm, moist air from the Gulf will be drawn inland as fuel for the system. Upper-level winds will be in a prime position to allow strong to severe storms to form which may produce TORNADOES.

It is very important that you stay tuned to this feed and stay aware of the rapidly-changing conditions.

TONGHT: Cloudy and cool with isolated pockets of light rain far south and west of Houston. Temperatures in the low 50s with steady east winds 8-12 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR TUESDAY: 4
TUESDAY: Periods of light rain becoming steadier and heavier through the day. Rapid rainfall may lead to flash flooding and high water on roads. Temperatures in the mid 60s with east winds 10-15 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR WEDNESDAY: 3
WEDNESDAY: Periods of heavy rain accompanied by strong to severe thunderstorms which may produce isolated TORNADOES. Temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70. Southeast winds 10-15 mph.

Playoff Weather - GO TEXANS!!

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx

Maybe a victory will warm the hearts of Houstonians, weary from this recent spate of cold, wintry weather.  We can only hope!  In the meantime, some of the chill will wear off this weekend, but don't put those umbrellas away just quite yet.  A disturbance sliding across Texas that brought a mix of rain and sleet here will finally move away, but not before dragging a cold front through southeast Texas.  Here's a depiction for 1 pm Saturday:

So, if you're tailgating or going to the game vs. the Bengals, be sure to pack the rain gear.  The best hope is that most of the rain moves out by halftime with skies remaining cloudy as fans leave, hopefully in a good mood.  It will also be cool so wear a sweatshirt or coat under that jersey and poncho.  

After that, well finally see some sunshine returning for Sunday and the first part of next week.  However, another rainmaker moves in by midweek.

TONIGHT: Cloudy and chilly with periods of light rain returning in the overnight hours.  Again, some of the rain could mix with sleet in neighborhoods mainly north of Houston.  Temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s.  Northeast winds 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 4

SATURDAY: Periods of steady to moderate rain through mid-afternoon, then remaining cloudy and cool with highs at or below 50°. Northeast winds 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 6

SUNDAY: Cloudy and cold start with gradually increasing sunshine by afternoon.  Morning lows again in the upper 30s to low 40s, but warming to the low 60s by afternoon.  North winds 5-10 mph.

Thanks for reading my blog; feel free to tell a friend and leave a comment. I'd love to hear from you!  And GO TEXANS!!!

Ready For More Winter?

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx

Did you see it today?  Yes, that occasionally visible yellow orb in the sky was the sun!After teasing us with glimpses and even a slight thaw, clouds are streaming back in.  And after seeing the mercury rise above 50°, we're bracing for another drop into the chilly 30s.

 

Those increasing clouds will also bring back rain, again mixed with sleet.  The air is plenty cold aloft, so what falls will be ice, some of which melts in a warm layer just above the ground.  So a rain/sleet mixture will be common, especially in neighborhoods north and northwest of Houston.  Don't expect icy roads though; it will be cold tonight but the ground temperature will remain above the freezing level of 32°.  The rain and dreary conditions will persist into at least the first half of the weekend.  But don't break out the flip flops and shorts just quite yet.  It is January, after all. 

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds with periods of light rain.  Some of the rain will mix with and turn to sleet mainly north of I-10.  Temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 30s, but should remain above freezing.  Raw northeast winds 10-15 mph.

 

FRIDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 3

 

FRIDAY: Cloudy, continued cold with highs below 50°. Occasional periods of rain from early morning through early afternoon. Raw northeast winds 10-15 mph.

 

SATURDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 4

 

SATURDAY: Periods of light rain mixing with sleet briefly.  Rain should taper off before the Texans kickoff, but fans headed to the game and tailgaters should have the rain gear ready.

Highs in the low to mid 50s. Northeast winds 10-15 mph.

Cold, Wet & Icy For Some

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx

Brrr...the cold and wet weather that developed today is slowly coming to an end.  Let me clarify - the rain is ending, but the cold persists for at least the next four days.  At times this afternoon, the air aloft was cold enough to allow what was falling to freeze up on the way to the ground.  Those little pieces of ice are sleet; they don't accumulate because the ground temperature while cold, was above freezing.  Late this afternoon, the rain is moving off the upper Texas coast:

 

 

 

The cloud cover - that will be with us for a while as we continue to be in the "over-running" pattern I described in yesterday's blog.  Temperatures will remain cold, especially the next few mornings and a new upper-level disturbance moving in from west Texas brings rain by week's end.  It is also possible that late Friday night going into Saturday morning, some locations, mainly north and northeast of Houston may see some more sleet.

 

TONIGHT: Rain along the coast ends by late evening.  Skies remain overcast and temperatures fall into the upper 30s.  Some neighborhoods north of Houston may briefly experience a light freeze by sunrise.  North winds 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 4

THURSDAY: Cloudy, continued cold with highs below 50°. By late afternoon, clouds may thin out a bit for brief glimpses of sun.  Northeast winds 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 4

FRIDAY: Freezing cold morning then another cool afternoon with cloudy skies.  Periods of light rain develop by afternoon continuing into the evening.  Neighborhoods north and northeast of Houston may see rain briefly mixed with periods of light sleet.  Highs in the low 50s.  Northeast winds 5-10 mph.

After the Warmest Year Ever - A Cool Trend

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx

 

No, I wasn't out late last night nor did I imbibe...excessively.  It's true - 2012 in Houston goes down as the warmest year on record.  Which is pretty astonishing considering that we didn't break a lot of high temperature records.  What happened to make 2the year that just ended so warm was the number of times the morning temperatures either broke records or were just plain warmer than normal.  The average of the highs and lows puts Houston at 72.1°, breaking the 1962 mark of 71.9°.  You may be wondering what about 2011, when we had a record number of 100 degree days and the hottest summer ever.  Turns out that year is third on the list with an average temperature of 71.8°.  Even more interesting is the fact that eight of Houston's warmest years ever have been recorded since 1998.  Can anyone say "global warming"?  For more detail on 2012, check this link from the National Weather Service: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_graphs_iah.

 

The prospects for the first few days of the New Year are temperatures running somewhat cooler than normal.  And it may also be a while until we see the sun.  Clouds are lingering after the copious rainfall that doused many New Year's Eve celebrations:

 

 



The alignment of upper-level winds is southwest to northeast so we have a common weather pattern in winter months called "over-running".  While cold air is arriving at the surface, it is being "over-run" by milder air aloft, allowing for clouds to form and remain.  The pattern only changes when drier colder air at higher altitudes arrives.  I don't see that happening for the next few days.

TONIGHT: Periods of drizzle ending near the coast with overcast skies everywhere.  Getting colder with temperatures falling into the upper 30s.  North winds 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 5 (At least it's not raining)

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy and much cooler than normal with highs below 50°.  North winds 10-15 mph.

THURSDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 5

THURSDAY: Colder morning with a light freeze in northern neighborhoods.  Continued cool all day with clouds lifting a bit to reveal some peeks of sunshine.  Highs in the low to mid 50s.  North winds 10-15 mph.

Happy Wet New Year!

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx
Headed to one of the many New Year's Eve celebrations? Be sure to pack the rain gear and be careful on the slick roads.  The rain that began this afternoon continues as the clock strikes twelve and the New Year begins.  Wish I had better news, but sometimes "it is what it is".  Here's the forecast depiction for the wee hours of 2013:

So when does the rain stop?  Well, it may not be until late in the day Tuesday.  After that, another cool down brings a return of chilly winter weather for the balance of the week.

TONIGHT: Periods of rain, heavy at times with occasional thunderstorms.  Lows in the upper 50s.  Southerly winds 5-10 mph become northwest at 10-15 by early morning.

TUESDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 4

TUESDAY: Heavy morning rain tapers off by late afternoon.  Getting progressively cooler with temperatures falling through the 50s with steady north winds 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 6

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy and cool.  Morning lows in the low to mid 40s.  A steady raw north wind and overcast skies keep temperatures in the below 50° all day.

Cold End To 2012

Bundle up!  As the last few days of 2012 tick off; the weather remains cold.  The blue line in the picture above represents a cold front moving across Southeast Texas this evening.  Behind it, a cold dry air mass is set to settle in tonight through Sunday.  It will get close to freezing tonight, but with less wind Saturday night, a longer lasting freeze is expected. 

A new cold front approaches for New Year's Eve, which means we could see some rain to ring in 2013.  The first few days of the New Year see a return of this kind of winter's cold.  Even with the rain we'll see on the 31st, rainfall for 2012 is expected to be below normal by about seven inches.

 

TONIGHT: Gradually clearing skies, windy and turning much colder. Neighborhoods north of I-10 will see 3 -6 hours of freezing temperatures. Just above freezing for Houston and surrounding suburbs; low 40s along the coast.  North winds 10-15 mph.

 

SATURDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 6

SATURDAY: Cool and dry after a cold start, despite plenty of sunshine.  Highs barely above 50° for most locations.  North winds 10-15 mph.

 

SUNDAY'S NORMAN NUMBER: 5

SUNDAY: Freezing cold morning area wide, low 40s along the coast.  Skies quickly become overcast, keeping the balance of the day cool.  Highs in the low 50s. Northeast winds turning east 5-10 mph.

 

Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx