Valentine's Day Chill

By Gene Norman
Follow @genenormanwx on twitter

Hope Cupid's arrow finds it's mark tomorrow.  At least the weather will be perfect for - snuggling.  Here's how chilly it will be across Texas Thursday morning:

Thursday evening will be cool as well.  An approaching cold front Friday keeps temperatures chilly though the end of the week,  As for that chance of snow or sleet; its still there for sometime Friday, but again, the chances are highest north of Houston.  That second push of cool air means it will be cool for the upcoming NBA All-Star weekend in Houston.

TONIGHT: Clear and cool, becoming chilly by morning with lows in the upper 30s in Houston and mid 30s north of Houston.  Some locations north of Conroe could briefly drop to the freezing mark.  Winds light to near calm.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR THURSDAY: 8
THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly early, becoming a bit milder by afternoon.  Highs in the mid to upper 60s.  A few high clouds develop toward late afternoon.  Northeast winds early becoming westerly by afternoon 5-10 mph.  

NORMAN NUMBER FOR FRIDAY: 6
FRIDAY: Overcast, cool and breezy. Brief pockets of light rain, possibly mixed with sleet, especially far north of Houston early in the day.  Highs in the low 60s.  Northeast winds 5-10 mph.

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Bundle Up, Cold Makes A Comeback

By Gene Norman
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Yeah, I know, today's rain was a non-event.  Most of the heavy, steady showers I expected to see here developed far north of us and continued moving that way.  All we saw were a lot of low clouds, fog and some drizzle.  Now, we're getting ready for a return of colder weather despite an accompanying return of much-needed sunshine.  Here's a look at low temperatures the next few days:

The upper-level wind flow that brought the last few dreary days will finally change direction from southwest to more northwest.  That opens the door for colder air from the Rockies to swing into Southeast Texas, making for the chilly mornings mentioned above.  A stronger push of colder air arrives Friday and some computer models are hinting that there may be just enough moisture to allow for sleet or snow to fall, mainly north of Houston.  That's still a few days off, though and a LOT has to happen for us to see the white stuff anywhere near the Bayou City.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy, becoming cooler.  Temperatures falling to the mid 40s by sunrise. Northwest wind 10-15 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
WEDNESDAY: Early clouds quickly give way to increasing sunshine.  Remaining brisk and cool with highs near 60°.  Northwest winds 10-15 early decreasing to 5-10 mph by late afternoon.  

NORMAN NUMBER FOR THURSDAY: 8
THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly early with a few high clouds returning by late afternoon.  Temperatures in the morning start in the upper 30s and low 40s, rising to the low to mid 60s.  Winds gradually become westerly 5-10 mph.


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Over-running Rain

By Gene Norman
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It's b-a-a-c-k...the weather pattern known as "over-running", which plagued us at the beginning of January.  The encore performance is making for a dismal start to the week, but if you can hold on for a few days - you will see the sun - eventually.  Tonight an tomorrow, however, will be dreary, damp and cool.  The recipe is simple: northeast winds at the surface keep temperatures cool while milder air aloft streams in from the southwest.  This map shows the surface winds as thin lines with arrows overlaid on surface temperatures:

Below is the depiction of the wind flow at 18,000 feet:

Periodic impulses in that flow allow showers and a few rumbles of thunder to move across Southeast Texas.  This morning, it was cold enough aloft to allow for ice pellets to reach the ground.  There were quite a few reports of brief pea-sized hail.  It's not out of the question that a few thunderstorms may allow for a repeat late tonight and early Tuesday.

This pattern should break down by early Wednesday as the upper-level winds all shift to the northwest.  That will allow cooler air to arrive in time for Valentine's Day.  A stronger push of cold air arrives during NBA All-Star weekend, so get your stylish winter wear ready!

TONIGHT: Cloudy, cool with occasional periods of light rain. Thunderstorms possible toward early morning.  Temperatures holding in the low to mid 50s. Northeast wind 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR TUESDAY: 5
TUESDAY: Showers and thunderstorms through mid-afternoon.  Rain tapering off by late afternoon, but skies remaining mostly cloudy.  Turning colder during the late evening.  Daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s, then falling through the 50s during the evening.  Northeast winds early 5-10 mph become east 10-15 by late afternoon then west-northwest by evening 15-20 mph.  

NORMAN NUMBER FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
WEDNESDAY: Early clouds quickly give way to sunshine.  Remaining cool and breezy.  Temperatures in the morning start in the upper 40s, rising to the low 60s.  Steady northwest winds 15-20 mph.


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Damp & Cool Days Ahead

By Gene Norman

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Get set for a week that starts with little sun, some rain and a chill in the air. Perhaps it could be the perfect recipe for lovers, looking for an excuse to snuggle on Valentine's Day. The first of several cold fronts slipped across Southeast Texas today; it hangs up along the coast tonight and tomorrow. The image above depicts clouds and rain lingering Monday along the stalled front. Meanwhile, a series of upper level disturbances will ride over the stalled boundary producing periodic bouts of rain. A stronger cold front arrives by mid-week, putting an end to the rain, ushering in colder days. A final push of cold air greets visitors to the Bayou City for next weekend's NBA All-Star festivities.

TONIGHT: Cloudy, breezy and cool with occasional light rain. Temperatures holding in the low to mid 50s. Northeast wind 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR MONDAY: 6
MONDAY: Cloudy, cool with occasional periods of light rain. Temperatures barely getting above 60°. Steady northeast winds 10-15 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR TUESDAY: 5
TUESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain becoming steadier and more widespread through the day. Rainfall amounts approach 1/2"-1". Temperatures in the morning start in the mid 50s, rising to the low to mid 60s with north and northeast winds 5-10 mph.


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Changes On The Way

By Gene Norman
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Today's clouds are just the beginning of more changes headed our way.  The image above depicts an approaching cold front moving through Texas Sunday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop ahead of the front.  Can't rule out a few of the storms briefly becoming strong to severe.  The best chance for that will be late Sunday night going into early Monday morning.  Here's the latest severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The front is expected to linger along the coast Monday keeping the rain chance around.  A push of colder air arrives behind the front for the middle of next week and an even stronger push of cold air returns a winter feel by Valentine's Day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with occasional spotty rain.  Breezy and mild with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.  Southeast winds 10-15 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR SUNDAY: 6
SUNDAY: Low clouds and fog with light rain.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop in the afternoon.  Some storms may become severe, especially north and east of Houston.  Mild, breezy and balmy in the morning with temperatures starting in the upper 60s, climbing to the mid 70s by afternoon.  Southwest winds 10-15 mph shifting to northwest 10-15 mph by late evening.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR MONDAY: 5
MONDAY: Low clouds with occasional light rain.  Remaining cloudy, noticeably cooler.  Morning temperatures in the low 50s and only rising to the mid to upper 60s by afternoon.  Steady northeast winds 10-15 mph.

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Final Mardi Gras Weekend

By Gene Norman
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Hope you're enjoying the return of the sun today, because we're headed for some changes this weekend and next week. A cold front will emerge from the Rockies late Sunday and head for Southeast Texas. In advance of the front, southeast winds return and so do the clouds. Rain is more likely Sunday, but there could some Saturday as well. So, if you're headed to the big Mardi Gras parade Saturday night, bring the rain gear.

The front stalls along the coast meaning a dreary start to next week before a stronger push of cold air arrives, bringing a return of a more winter feel just before Valentine's Day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, with increasing cloudiness after midnight. Temperatures falling to upper 40s and low 50s.   Northeast winds becoming easterly 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR SATURDAY: 7
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy for most of the day with occasional periods of rain. Increasing rain chances by evening.  Temperatures start cool in the low 50s rising to the upper 60s by afternoon.  Southeast winds 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR SUNDAY: 6
SUNDAY: Low clouds and fog early, then a mostly cloudy day with scattered showers increasing in coverage by afternoon and evening.  Morning temperatures in the low to 60s, climbing to the milder 70s by afternoon.   Southerly winds 10-15 mph.

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After The Rain

By Gene Norman
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About the best thing we can say about today's rain - at least it didn't spoil a weekend day.  Hope you got to where you needed to without too much hassle but it sure has been a mess.  Looks now that the worst may be past us, but can't rule out a few more brief, passing showers.  The upper-level disturbance triggering the downpours will slowly move away from us overnight, giving us a break from the rain.  We'll see a mixed bag the next few days before the return of more rain and winter's chill next week.

Since the source of today's rain isn't a cold front, don't expect a big cool down once the rains do come to an end sometime overnight.  Instead, a quick return of a moist southeast flow keeps us muggy and mild.  Looking down the road toward the weekend, I'm still tracking a strong cold front which will trigger more rain Saturday night (Mardi Gras revelers take note) going into Sunday.  THAT rain will be followed by a big drop in temperatures and a return of the "overrunning" pattern that was common at the beginning of January.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with occasional showers then areas of dense fog developing overnight.  Mild with temperatures falling to the upper 50s and low 60s.  Winds becoming northwesterly 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR THURSDAY: 7
THURSDAY: Morning fog, then skies slowly clearing through the afternoon.  Temperatures remain mild, rising to upper 70s by afternoon.  Northwest wind becoming northeast 5-10 mph.

NORMAN NUMBER FOR FRIDAY: 7
THURSDAY: Low clouds and fog early, then a mild mix of sun and clouds during the afternoon.  Morning temperatures in the mid 50s, climbing to the mid 70s by afternoon.  Southeast winds 5-10 mph.

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