Will Holiday Weather Be A Turkey?

It's looking a little soggy for Southeast Texas toward the end of this week. That could mean wet weather for the annual Thanksgiving Day parade in downtown Houston and depending on where you're traveling in the Lone Star a new taste of winter.

A vigorous winter storm hitting the Pacific Northwest Tuesday will being to move through the Rockies and then take a dive into Texas by Wednesday. High pressure east of the Mississippi will force Gulf moisture inland as a cold front approaches. Along the collision line is where rain will develop in Texas along with stronger storms in Oklahoma:

The system then deepens by Black Friday with icy conditions for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles:

Don't worry though, the cold air doesn't seep much further than west Texas. Whatever your travel plans, have a safe holiday!

Cooler Weather Behind The Storms

Fortunately, most of southeast Texas missed seeing the kind of storms that roared across the panhandle Monday night. In the wake of Tuesday's drenching rains that did move through the region, colder air is poised to move in. Shown above are the expected morning low temperatures, mainly in the upper 40s and low 50s.

High pressure moving in the next few days should help dry things up a bit but freezing cold temperatures are not expected. The core of that colder air stays north of the region. That means only about two crisp fall mornings before the next change moves in this weekend. Here is a look at Thursday morning's low temperatures:

Notice they're not that much colder. A new front Saturday may bring some spotty rain, but behind it - the chilliest weather so far this fall moves in. Look at the lows Sunday morning:

Probably too early to talk about freeze warnings, but if the cold air descends further south, it is possible. At the very least some frost advisories are possible. Right on time for the holidays!

Another Round of Storms On The Horizon

Southeast Texas is bracing for another round of possible flooding and severe storms early next week. Depicted above is the expected rainfall totals through Tuesday. Note the +3" amounts from east Texas into eastern Oklahoma. One way to always know when an imminent severe storm threat is looming is by subscribing to WeatherCall: try.weathercall.net/signupnow.

It's becoming an all-too familiar pattern which began the weekend before Halloween. This time, low pressure will emerge from southwest Texas and interact with a vigorous upper-level low pressure and cold front coming out of the Rockies. 

The surface low will be able to tap into abundant Gulf moisture while the upper-level low and front will provide sufficient lift and wind shear to allow strong, slow-moving and possibly severe thunderstorms to develop. Here is the depiction for late Monday:

Notice how the rain area expands by Tuesday:

This system doesn't move out until late Tuesday. Even this far out, the Storm Prediction Center is indicating that Southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana could have a risk for severe weather; first late Monday going into Tuesday morning:

And then from late Tuesday into early Wednesday:

This will definitely be a system to watch as it evolves, so stay aware and alert. 

Dry For Election Day

The memories of the Halloween storms may be fresh in the minds of some, but there are no weather worries for Election Day. Expect some early morning cloudiness, but by mid-morning, there should be a mix of sun and clouds. Southeast winds replace Monday's milder north breezes, bringing back the humidity as well. That increased moisture will interact with an approaching cool front that signals a return of now unwelcome rains.

Here is a depiction of conditions by Wednesday afternoon:

The last thing people in the Hill country want to see is more rain headed in their direction. However, that's what today's models are showing. Here is the depiction for Thursday afternoon:

The red splotches indicate the possibility of stronger storms stretching from the Austin/San Antonio area into Dallas and Tulsa. It's a little too early to tell how severe these storms could become, but its a situation that needs to be watched. Eventually, those rains move eastward into east Texas and Louisiana.