Monday, November 26, 2012

Overnight Storms Possible

Don't get too used to today's near-record warmth.  For the second time in as many weeks, we're flirting with a record high.  Today, we topped out 2 degrees shy of the 1967 mark of 86° for this date.  Once again, though, a change heading our way will make it feel more like November by tomorrow.  That change is in the form of a cold front which will sweep across Southeast Texas overnight.  At the same time, am upper-level disturbance is moving in from the Big Bend.  Currently computer models time the two to arrive at the same time, enhancing the chance for thunderstorms - some of which could be strong.  This afternoon's satellite picture shows the two features:

Storms that form will likely do so after 11 pm, and it may be a very narrow line which develops as the cold front moves through. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has neighborhoods well north and east of Houston as having the greatest risk for damaging wind gusts and hail:

In fact, the majority of the stronger storms could impact Central Louisiana more so than Southeast Texas.  The bottom line for us is to expect some rain overnight and depending on how slow the front advances, it may linger into the early part of the Tuesday morning commute.

TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness with showers and thunderstorms developing most likely after midnight. Temperatures will fall as the front arrives dropping from the mid 60s to the mid 50s just after sunrise. Winds will be southwest until the frontal passage, when they will sharply turn out of the northwest and become quite brisk.

TUESDAY: Lingering morning clouds and exiting coastal rain followed by slow clearing.  Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy for most of the day.  Much cooler with highs in the mid 60s accompanied by breezy north winds 10-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and cool in the morning with lows in the mid 40s. Afternoon highs in the low 70s. A milder east wind 5-10 mph.

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