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Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Talking Tropics - Danny...and more?

Circled above is the fourth named storm of the 2015 season, Danny. It began as a wave emerging off the west coast of Africa late Sunday. Current projections show Danny will continue moving westward in the Atlantic and likely strengthen. Here is the current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

Of course, a lot can and will happen over the next five days. Danny is close to the equator and relatively warm Atlantic water. Those factor contribute to growth. However, as it approaches the eastern edge of the Caribbean, it may run into enough shear to disrupt it.
Here is a depiction of shear by early week:

Currently, long-range models show this shear stopping any more of Danny's (indicated by the red "L") westward progress. Check back here later in the week to see how things develop.

In the meantime, on the 32nd anniversary of Hurricane Alicia's arrival in Houston, I noticed this blob of clouds in the western Gulf:

The extremely warm water and high pressure aloft make for a good environment for growth, however, the approaching cool front should nudge this mass of clouds into the Gulf. It is curious, however, that as of this writing, none of the computer models have seemed to pick up on this feature.

Again, stay tuned as we continue to lurch toward the heart of the season. 

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