Friday, August 7, 2015

Record-Breaking Heat On The Way

Forecast temperatures over the next week.

The triple-digit drumbeat isn't anything too unusual for the Bayou City in the summer. However, this round of high heat will break records and possibly set a new all-time record.

Depicted above is the temperature forecast from various computer models. Note the white line which represents the model average. It approaches 105° could even go higher. In fact, it is possible that the highest ever mark of 109° set memorably on August 27, 2011, could be challenged. During that month in 2011, all but one day registered 100° or higher.

Here are the forecast temperatures and records for the up-coming misery:

                     Forecast             Record
Aug 7               102°                  104° (2003)
Aug 8               102°                  104° (1962)
Aug 9               103°                  106° (1962)
Aug 10             106°                  104° (1962)
Aug 11             106°                  102° (2011)
Aug 12             105°                  105° (1962)

Additionally, there will be enough humidity to push the heat index over 110°.  This is a depiction of the forecast for how hot it will feel. It is a reminder to be sure you exercise caution when outside, especially keep the young ones in and check in on elderly neighbors. 

Whenever southeast Texas roasts like this, it's because a ridge of high pressure is parked over the state. Under the ridge, the air is sinking and compressed, leading to 100° days. Here is the upper-level wind pattern depicted centered firmly over southeast Texas by late Sunday:

The ridge won't break down appreciably until the end of next week. As it shifts to the west, a slight chance of isolated showers could return. Ah...summer in H-town!

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