Saturday, May 2, 2015

And Now A Word From The Tropics

First, let me say that no one along the Texas coast needs to be concerned about an imminent threat from the Gulf of Mexico. There's plenty of time to dissect any and every wave poised to possibly take aim at any part of the U.S. Remember, Hurricane Season doesn't even begin for another month. However in the forecast snapshot above, a wave developing over the Caribbean may, just must may become a sub-tropical low off the South Carolina coast by Wednesday.

This system should remain off the coast for several days as a wedge of high pressure stretching from the Ohio River Valley to the Gulf Coast remains fairly stout. It is this same high pressure that brought the Southeast a delightful first weekend of May. Nevertheless, if it gets as organized as is forecast, the National Hurricane Center may declare this the first named storm of 2015 - Ana. 

Above is the forecast for Thursday, which shows a much-stronger system, that could lash the South Carolina coast with +50 mph winds and possibly high swells. It is a situation that will be monitored through the up-coming week.

The system will be unlike a traditional tropical system in that it will have a cool upper-level core instead of a warm one. However, it's intensification may be due to something tropical systems over 
water have - it will be over warm water. In this case, the warm swath of water called the Gulf Stream that emerges from the Gulf of Mexico and slides parallel to the Eat Coast of the U.S.

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