As of this writing, 147 counties in Texas are under a burn ban due to dry conditions. Much-needed rain is in the forecast for later week as low pressure develops in the western Gulf. That, in combination with a strong high pressure cell in the southeast U.S. will allow for extensive periods of rain to move into some of the driest areas in the Lone Star State.
Already, a few spotty showers have developed off the upper Texas coast, a sign that the lower atmosphere is much more saturated than recent days. By Friday, the picture changes dramatically to this:
The low pressure develops by late Sunday and could linger in the Gulf for a while:
Once the rain begins late Thursday, it could deposit over half a foot in the Hill Country, which could lead to flood concerns:
The pattern will be periods of repeated rains over some of the same areas. In situations like this, dry soil actually increases the flood threat because runoff is stifled.
The best thing to do is to monitor weather conditions and if you know you are in a flood-prone area, you should have a plan to get to higher ground. Continue to monitor this blog for updates heading toward the weekend.